Foreclosures Predicted to Soar in California



California is about to get hit by another foreclosure wave.

Pre-foreclosure notices in the state jumped by 80% in the first quarter of 2009 from the previous quarter, according to a new report from DataQuick Information Systems of San Diego, a sign that foreclosures in California will rise sharply in the coming months.

Foreclosure moratoria and a state law that slowed down foreclosures had artificially depressed new foreclosure filings at the beginning of the year. The newest data shows how those foreclosures are wending through the system as lenders play “catch-up.”

Some 135,000 default notices were sent out in the first three months of the year, an 80% increase from the fourth quarter of 2008 and a 19% increase from the previous year period. That’s higher than any quarter DataQuick has measured since its tally began in 1992.

The DataQuick report also found that foreclosure activity was spreading out from the state’s most affordable (and batteredOK?) inland regions, reaching areas that have been less affected to date. Those affordable housing markets, which have 25% of the state’s housing stock, accounted for 47.5% of all default activity during the quarter, down from 52% last year. Notices of default jumped by 40%, for example, in San Luis Obispo County on the central California coast. Defaults were up by 38% in Los Angeles County and by 35% in San Francisco.

Mortgages made in 2006 were the most likely to trigger a default notice, and those loans had a 8.5% default rate. Loans made in 2005 had a 4.9% default rate, while those made in 2004 had a default rate of less than 1%.